With the preliminary control of the epidemic, the focus of the policy shifted to “emphasis on prevention and control of epidemic situation” and resumption of production, and market concerns gradually returned to the short, medium and long-term effects of the epidemic on the fundamentals;

Although most companies choose to resume work on February 10, resumption of work is only the starting point for the gradual recovery of economic activities, and specifically involves the return rate and return to work.

Under such circumstances, the impact on the polyester industry chain was most severe in February and March, and gradually recovered in April. It is expected that it will gradually become normal after May.

From the perspective of the degree of automation of the polyester industry chain, upstream and downstream are different. The upstream is mostly the larger the automation of large-scale refining equipment, and the downstream is mostly labor-intensive industries.

The more downstream the labor force, the greater the impact of the Spring Festival and the epidemic.

The impact on downstream weaving is mainly the effect of the resumption of workers and the increase of the load on the loom. After the Spring Festival in previous years, there were difficulties in recruiting downstream workers. However, due to the need for epidemic prevention and control this year, the recruitment of downstream weaving workers will be more difficult. At the same time, it also has a certain impact on logistics, so that the downstream weaving industry has a situation where raw materials cannot be transported in, and products cannot be transported out. It takes time to recover.

The impact on polyester is mainly pressure on inventory and cash flow. The pressure on the inventory of polyester factories that stopped production late before the Spring Festival is gradually increasing. At present, the inventory of polyester factories with large inventories has exceeded 20 days, and the inventory of factories that have reduced production earlier before the holiday is still around 10 days. Until January 30, The inventory of polyester staple fiber is 4.96 days, the inventory of DTY is 24 days, and the inventory of FDY is 17 days.

By February 13, polyester staple fiber inventory rose by 8.64 days, DTY inventory rose by 9 days, and FDY inventory rose by 8.5 days. During the epidemic, logistics was blocked, and downstream weaving production was slower. The inventory pressure of polyester factories will still increase. It is expected that polyester inventory will break through historical highs. Inventory pressure and cash flow pressure of polyester factories will continue to increase, forcing Polyester plants continue to cut production.

Impact on PTA. Along with the increase in production and reduction of polyester factories and the obstruction of logistics, the efficiency of freight transportation has declined and PTA consumption has been suppressed. In addition, before the Spring Festival, there were 2.5 million tons of Hengli Petrochemical and 1.2 million tons of Zhongtai Petrochemical put into operation, and the load of the PTA device reached more than 90%. It is expected that the PTA output will reach a record high. Throughout February, PTA production is expected to reach nearly 4 million tons, and the accumulated storage of PTA from January to February is expected to reach more than 1 million tons. The PTA social inventory will also break the historical high of 2 million tons.

From the perspective of cash flow, the PTA processing difference before the Spring Festival reached 700 yuan / ton, but with the rapid decline after the Spring Festival, the PTA processing difference quickly reduced to less than 400 yuan / ton, and the cost of PX purchased before the holiday was nearly At 800 US dollars / ton, the willingness of the PTA plant to start is low, and due to the blocked logistics, most of the social inventory is in the PTA plant. The cash flow pressure of the PTA plant has increased sharply. It is expected that the load of the PTA plant will decline.

Source: Textile Net

Huaian Jiatai New Fiber Co., Ltd. is a large-scale polypropylene enterprise integrating the development, production and sales of polypropylene yarn, polypropylene high-strength yarn, polypropylene industrial yarn, high-strength polypropylene yarn, and polypropylene twisted yarn.

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